Three macro forces are colliding in 2026 — tariffs, a memory crunch and longer upgrade cycles. Each one makes a brand-new device costlier or scarcer. And each one is a structural tailwind for the second-life market.
1. New is getting harder to make — and pay for
The semiconductor supply chain is under visible pressure. The US introduced a 25% tariff on a narrow band of advanced chips from January 2026, and foundry leader TSMC has signalled price rises of 15%+ on its most advanced nodes. Layer on a DRAM and NAND memory crunch that, per Counterpoint, helped push global smartphone shipments down ~6% year-on-year in Q1 2026, and the direction of travel for new-device cost and availability is clear.
2. People are holding on longer
Consumers were already keeping phones longer; the economics are accelerating it. The global replacement cycle has stretched to roughly 3.5–4 years (closer to 3.8 in the US) as hardware gains plateau and software support lengthens. Tellingly, battery life has overtaken price as the top purchase driver — a signal that buyers want devices that last, not just devices that are new.
3. Trade-in and refurb are surging
The second-life market is absorbing that shift. Assurant reported $1.63 billion in consumer value returned through trade-in programs in Q1 2026 — up 31% year-on-year and the most active quarter on record by volume, with average traded-device age steady at 3.81 years. The global refurbished-and-used phone market is now sized around $78 billion in 2026, with structured trade-in programs feeding the majority of supply and online channels handling well over 60% of sales.
4. Premium devices are the perfect feedstock
Apple led the global smartphone market for the first time in Q1 2026 at roughly 21% share, riding premium momentum even as the overall market shrank. That matters for renewal: premium devices hold their value, get traded in, and re-enter the market with years of useful life left — exactly the feedstock a refurbishment line is built for.
When new gets harder, renewed gets bigger. The winners won't be the cheapest sellers — they'll be the ones who can prove quality at scale.
The De Novo read
None of these forces is a blip. Tariffs, memory shortages and longer ownership are structural — and together they make the second-life device economy one of the most durable growth stories in consumer tech. The opportunity isn't to sell "used" cheaply; it's to industrialise renewal so that "renewed" carries the trust of "new". That's the line De Novo is building.
Sources
- Assurant — Q1 2026 mobile trade-in trends
- Counterpoint Research — Q1 2026 global smartphone shipments
- Supply Chain Dive — 2026 semiconductor tariffs
- SellCell — 2026 smartphone upgrade-cycle data